Combatting Groupthink in Estimation: Impact on Scheduling and Delivery
When I was a child, my pocket money was a generous Rs 10, and I was fascinated by the idea of eating out. In our culture, eating out was considered a bit of a luxury and not something we did often. So, once in a while, a few friends and I would walk to the local confectioner and face the age-old question: “What should we eat?” Samosas were always the go-to choice—it seemed like everyone else was ordering them, so I did too. The problem? I didn’t even like samosas. Yet, I ordered them every time because… well, everyone else was. I realize now that it was Groupthink at play. I didn’t speak up, and we all ended up with the same snack, which I didn’t enjoy.
That story may sound trivial, but it mirrors a phenomenon I often witness in project management—Groupthink during story pointing sessions. These sessions, typically rushed and conducted verbally, can lead to similar situations. Senior developers or product owners, being perceived as experts, unintentionally influence the team’s estimates, and before long, the group is aligned—whether they actually agree with the estimates or not. The team ends up conforming, just like I did with the samosas, even if the estimates aren’t the best.
The Consequences of Groupthink in Estimation
When Groupthink influences estimations, it can result in:
- Overoptimistic Estimates: Teams may underestimate the time required for tasks because of undue influence, leading to unrealistic schedules.
- Cutting Corners: To meet these unrealistic deadlines, the team may sacrifice quality, resulting in technical debt and poor architectural decisions.
- Lack of Ownership: When everyone conforms, no one takes full ownership of the estimates, which can lead to unmet expectations and frustration later.
Combatting Groupthink: Practical Solutions for Project Managers
- Provide Psychological Safety: Encourage open dialogue where all team members feel free to voice their concerns without fear of judgment.
- Minimize Assumptions: Challenge assumptions early on and ensure everyone is on the same page about the work ahead.
- Evaluate Skill Levels: Acknowledge the diverse skill levels within the team to ensure realistic estimations.
- Define the Definition of Done (DoD): Ensure clarity on what “done” means for the team, providing transparency for everyone involved.
By recognizing and addressing Groupthink, we can make more accurate estimations and deliver projects on time without the samosa-sized regrets.
BIPIN WANCHOO 